منابع مشابه
Aggregation of multiple prior opinions
Experts are asked to provide their advice in a situation of uncertainty. They adopt the decision maker’s utility function, but each has a potentially different set of prior probabilities, and so does the decision maker. The decision maker and the experts maximize the minimal expected utility with respect to their sets of priors. We show that a natural Pareto condition is equivalent to the exist...
متن کاملAggregation of expert opinions
Con icts of interest arise between a decision maker and agents who have information pertinent to the problem because of di erences in their preferences over outcomes. We investigate how the decision maker can extract the information by distorting the decisions that will be taken. We show that only slight distortions will be necessary when agents' signals are sufciently accurate or when the numb...
متن کاملAggregation of Expert Opinions By
Conflicts of interest arise between a decision maker and agents who have information pertinent to the problem because of differences in their preferences over outcomes. We investigate how the decision maker can extract the information by distorting the decisions that will be taken. We show that only slight distortions will be necessary when agents’ signals are sufficiently accurate or when the ...
متن کاملMaximum entropy aggregation of individual opinions
Abstruct-This paper presents several formulations for aggregating opinions about the outcome of a future event+.g., opinions in the form of probabilities are aggregated into a single probability. The approach used to derive these aggregation formulas is maximum entropy inference, with the assumption that the opinions and the event being predicted are joint random variables. As part of the prese...
متن کاملAggregation of expert opinions and uncertainty theories
The problem of expert opinions representation and aggregation has long been adressed in the only framework of probability theory. Nevertheless, recent years have witnessed many proposals in other uncertainty theories (possibility theory, evidence theory, imprecise probabilities). This paper casts the problem of aggregating expert opinions in a common underlying framework and shows how uncertain...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Journal of Economic Theory
سال: 2011
ISSN: 0022-0531
DOI: 10.1016/j.jet.2011.06.018